What is the current global warming temperature

Last week, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that in 2021, the US experienced 20 major climate-related disaster events with damage costs exceeding 1 billion. In total, these events caused US$145 billion in damage and claimed at least 688 lives.

The year was also one of the hottest globally and the fourth-hottest in the US since it started keeping records 127 years ago.

“If you relate the experienced global temperature increases with the findings of the IPCC WG 1 in their report last August on the science of climate change, the frequency, scale and cost of climate-related disasters will very likely increase not only in the US but all around the world,” says John Christensen, Senior Climate and Energy Expert at the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

Despite a 5.6 per cent drop in fossil fuel CO2 emissions in 2020, due to restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, continued to increase in 2020 and 2021, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) State of the Global Climate 2021 report.

The NOAA report shows that the global mean temperature between January and September 2021 was around 1.08 ±0.13 °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The year is likely to be between the 5th and 7th warmest year record at the global level.

WMO also predicts a 40 per cent chance that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years, and in several subregions, this is already happening.

According to the Paris Agreement, Member States committed to limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. Every country signing up to the agreement set out a target, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by around 2030.

New pledges from world governments were recently shared in the lead up to and at the UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in November 2021. But as UNEP’s 2021 Emissions Gap Report shows, these efforts are still not anywhere strong enough.

“Our fragile planet is hanging by a thread,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in his wrap up message to the conference. “ We are still knocking on the door of climate catastrophe. It is time to go into emergency mode — or our chance of reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 will itself be zero.”

Global warming and climate change will be one of the key topics of discussion at the fifth session of the UNEP-hosted UN Environment Assembly in February 2022. The world’s highest environmental decision-making body brings together representatives of the 193 Member States of the UN, businesses leaders, civil society and environmentalists from around the world.

Growing momentum for action

As temperatures rise, so is the global momentum to address climate change. In the world’s largest-ever survey of public opinion on climate change conducted in 2021, most people called for wide-ranging climate action. Covering 50 countries with over half of the world’s population, the survey included more than half a million people under the age of 18, a key constituency on climate change that is typically unable to vote in regular elections.

In order to provide relevant and up-to-date information to these many interested people around the world, UNEP  established the World Environment Situation Room in 2019, as a demonstration platform put together by a consortium of Big Data partners. It includes geo-referenced, remote-sensing and earth observation information and collates climate data in near real-time, and present this data in an easily accessible format

The following graphs, developed by the platform, contain interactive data on global warming trends.

This indicator describes trends in average surface temperature for the United States and the world.

• Figure 1. Temperatures in the Contiguous 48 States, 1901–2021
  

  This figure shows how annual average temperatures in the contiguous 48 states have changed since 1901. Surface data come from land-based weather stations. Satellite measurements cover the lower troposphere, which is the lowest level of the Earth’s atmosphere. “UAH” and “RSS” represent two different methods of analyzing the original satellite measurements. This graph uses the 1901–2000 average as a baseline for depicting change. Choosing a different baseline period would not change the shape of the data over time.

  Data source: NOAA, 20221
  Web update: July 2022

• Figure 2. Temperatures Worldwide, 1901–2021
  

  This figure shows how annual average temperatures worldwide have changed since 1901. Surface data come from a combined set of land-based weather stations and sea surface temperature measurements. Satellite measurements cover the lower troposphere, which is the lowest level of the Earth’s atmosphere. “UAH” and “RSS” represent two different methods of analyzing the original satellite measurements. This graph uses the 1901–2000 average as a baseline for depicting change. Choosing a different baseline period would not change the shape of the data over time.

  Data source: NOAA, 20222
  Web update: July 2022

• Figure 3. Rate of Temperature Change in the United States, 1901–2021
  

  This figure shows how annual average air temperatures have changed in different parts of the United States since the early 20th century (since 1901 for the contiguous 48 states and 1925 for Alaska). The data are shown for climate divisions, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

  Data source: NOAA, 20223
  Web update: July 2022

Key Points

• Since 1901, the average surface temperature across the contiguous 48 states has risen at an average rate of 0.17°F per decade (see Figure 1). Average temperatures have risen more quickly since the late 1970s (0.32 to 0.55°F per decade since 1979). Nine of the top 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous 48 states have occurred since 1998, and 2012 and 2016 were the two warmest years on record.
• Worldwide, 2016 was the warmest year on record, 2020 was the second-warmest, and 2012–2021 was the warmest decade on record since thermometer-based observations began. Global average surface temperature has risen at an average rate of 0.17°F per decade since 1901 (see Figure 2), similar to the rate of warming within the contiguous 48 states. Since the late 1970s, however, the United States has warmed faster than the global rate.
• Some parts of the United States have experienced more warming than others (see Figure 3). The North, the West, and Alaska have seen temperatures increase the most, while some parts of the Southeast have experienced little change. Not all of these regional trends are statistically significant, however.

Background

Temperature is a fundamental measurement for describing the climate, and the temperature in particular places can have wide-ranging effects on human life and ecosystems. For example, increases in air temperature can lead to more intense heat waves (see the Heat Waves indicator), which can cause illness and death, especially in vulnerable populations. Annual and seasonal temperature patterns also determine the types of animals and plants that can survive in particular locations. Changes in temperature can disrupt a wide range of natural processes, particularly if these changes occur more quickly than plant and animal species can adapt.

Concentrations of heat-trapping greenhouse gases are increasing in the Earth’s atmosphere (see the Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases indicator). In response, average temperatures at the Earth’s surface are increasing and are expected to continue rising. Because climate change can shift the wind patterns and ocean currents that drive the world’s climate system, some areas are warming more than others, and some have experienced cooling.

About the Indicator

This indicator examines U.S. and global surface temperature patterns over time. U.S. surface measurements come from weather stations on land, while global surface measurements also incorporate observations from buoys and ships on the ocean, thereby providing data from sites spanning much of the surface of the Earth. This indicator starts at 1901 except for the detailed map of Alaska, where reliable statewide records are available back to 1925. For comparison, this indicator also displays satellite measurements that can be used to estimate the temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere since 1979.

This indicator shows annual anomalies, or differences, compared with the average temperature from 1901 to 2000. For example, an anomaly of +2.0 degrees means the average temperature was 2 degrees higher than the long-term average. Anomalies have been calculated for each weather station. Daily temperature measurements at each site were used to calculate monthly anomalies, which were then averaged to find an annual temperature anomaly for each year. Anomalies for the contiguous 48 states and Alaska have been determined by calculating average anomalies for areas within each state based on station density, interpolation, and topography. These regional anomalies are then averaged together in proportion to their area to develop national results. Similarly, global anomalies have been determined by dividing the world into a grid, averaging the data for each cell of the grid, and then averaging the grid cells together.

About the Data

Indicator Notes

Data from the early 20th century are somewhat less precise than more recent data because there were fewer stations collecting measurements at the time, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The overall trends are still reliable, however. Where possible, the data have been adjusted to account for any biases that might be introduced by factors such as station moves, urbanization near the station, changes in measuring instruments, and changes in the exact times at which measurements are taken.

Hawaii and U.S. territories are not included, due to limitations in available data.

Data Sources

The data for this indicator were provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information, which maintains a large collection of climate data online at: www.ncei.noaa.gov. The surface temperature anomalies shown here were calculated based on monthly values from a network of long-term monitoring stations. Satellite data were analyzed by two independent groups—the Global Hydrology and Climate Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS)—resulting in slightly different trend lines.

Technical Documentation

• Download related technical information PDF

References

1 USGCRP (U.S. Global Change Research Program). 2017. Climate science special report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, volume I. Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.). https://science2017.globalchange.gov. doi:10.7930/J0J964J6.

2 NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022. Climate at a glance. Accessed March 2022. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.

3 NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022. Climate at a glance. Accessed March 2022. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.

4 NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). 2022. Climate at a glance. Accessed February 2022. www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag.

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